February 2026 GTA Real Estate Market Update: What It Means If You Are Thinking of Moving

The February 2026 GTA real estate market update from TRREB is out. Sales were down year over year. Prices were lower than a year ago. If you have been watching from the sidelines, you might read that and think: not yet.

But the data tells a more layered story when you read it carefully. And if you are someone thinking about selling, buying, or making a move in Oakville, Mississauga, Milton or Burlington, this update is worth your time.

What the February 2026 GTA Real Estate Market Update Actually Tells Us

GTA REALTORS reported 3,868 home sales through the TRREB MLS System in February 2026, down 6.3 percent compared to February 2025. The average selling price came in at $1,008,968, down 7.1 percent year over year.

Those are the numbers that get reported. Here is what did not make the headline:

New listings dropped by 17.7 percent year over year. That is nearly three times the rate at which sales declined.

Sales fell 6.3%. New listings fell 17.7%. Supply is pulling back faster than demand. That is the real story in February 2026.

When fewer homes come to market than buyers are looking for, the gap between supply and demand tightens. TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld noted that if listings continue trending lower through spring, competition between buyers will increase, supporting prices and a recovery in sales.

The market is not in freefall. It is in a holding pattern. And holding patterns do not last indefinitely.

Waiting for Interest Rates to Drop Is Not a Strategy Right Now

The Bank of Canada held its overnight rate at 2.3 percent in February 2026. The prime rate sits at 4.5 percent. Five-year fixed mortgage rates are hovering around 6.09 percent.

Many buyers and sellers have been waiting for rates to fall meaningfully before making a move. The February data suggests that window of lower-competition, softer conditions may already be narrowing.

TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer put a specific number on it: more than 100,000 buyers are currently holding off on a home purchase in the GTA. They are waiting for prices to level off and for positive news on the trade front. When those conditions shift, the re-entry of even a fraction of those buyers will change market dynamics quickly.

100,000 plus buyers are sitting on the sidelines in the GTA. When they move, they move fast. The question is whether you want to be positioned before that happens or after.

Rates may ease further. They may not. Basing a major financial decision on a rate prediction is a difficult game to win. The more reliable question is: what does your situation actually call for right now, and what is the cost of waiting another year?

If You Are Thinking About Selling

February is historically a quieter month for inventory. But this February was quieter than most, with new listings across the GTA down nearly 18 percent from last year. That means if you listed your home this spring, you would be entering a market with less seller competition than you might expect.

Buyers are still active. The sale to list price ratio across the GTA held at 97 percent in February. Milton came in at 98 percent. Mississauga at 98 percent. These are not distressed numbers. They reflect a market where properly prepared and properly priced homes are still transacting.

The sellers who are waiting for a dramatic market recovery before listing may be waiting for conditions that do not arrive before the next wave of competition does. Right now, your home has fewer neighbours on the block.

If the timing aligns with your family situation, your financial goals, or a life transition you have been planning, this spring is worth a serious conversation.

If You Are Thinking About Buying or Making a Move

Prices have come down from their peak. The MLS Home Price Index Composite benchmark is down 7.9 percent year over year across TRREB. For buyers who have been priced out or on the sidelines, that represents real purchasing power compared to 2021 and 2022 levels.

The window of softer conditions is not infinite. When 100,000 sidelined buyers decide the moment is right, the market adjusts fast. Getting clear on your buying criteria, your financing, and your target communities now puts you in a position to move with confidence rather than scramble when competition returns.

The most common regret I hear from buyers is not about the home they bought. It is about the one they talked themselves out of because the timing felt uncertain. Uncertainty does not disappear. It just shifts to a different kind of risk.

How Oakville, Mississauga, Milton and Burlington Performed in February 2026

The GTA-wide numbers provide useful context. But the market you live in is the one that matters for your decision. Here is the February 2026 snapshot for the four communities I serve:

Market	Feb Sales	Avg. Price	Days on Market /SP:LP
Oakville	156 Sales	$1,325,983	36 days / 96%
Mississauga	345 Sales	$963,747	36 days / 98%
Milton	79 Sales	$974,613	29 Days / 98%
Burlington	126 Sales	$1,070,052	49 Days / 96%

Source: TRREB MLS Market Watch, February 2026. SP:LP = Sale to List Price ratio.

A few things stand out in this local data. Milton has the fastest days on market of the four cities at 29 days and its 98 percent SP:LP ratio tells you buyers there are still competitive. Mississauga offers the broadest activity with 345 transactions and strong price retention. Oakville continues to attract buyers at the top end of the market. Burlington is seeing longer days on market at 49 days, which gives buyers more time but means sellers need to be strategic on price and presentation.

Each of these markets has its own rhythm. Explore your community guide:

Oakville → Mississauga → Milton → Burlington

What to Do If You Are Considering a Move in 2026

Every move starts with a conversation, not a deadline. The right time to buy or sell is not something the market decides for you. It is something you decide based on where you are in life, what your finances look like, and what you are trying to build for yourself and your family.

What the February data tells me is that the conditions are reasonable right now. Not perfect, not urgent, just reasonable. And reasonable conditions are often exactly when the most thoughtful decisions get made.

Buyers who wait for the perfect moment rarely find it. What they find instead is that the hesitation itself had a cost, whether that was a home they loved that sold to someone else, or another year of carrying a decision that was ready to be made.

If you have been thinking about a move and want to get clear on what it would actually look like for your situation, that conversation costs nothing and usually answers more questions than you expected.

25 years in these four markets means I know what the data actually means for your street, your home type, and your timeline. Whatever stage you are at, I am here to support you through the whole thing.