February 2026 GTA Real Estate Market Update: What It Means If You Are Thinking of Moving

Every month when the TRREB GTA real estate market update comes out, I read through it the same way everyone else does. Sales down. Prices down. And I already know what the next question is going to be.

Will it go lower?

Nobody knows. And I am not going to pretend otherwise. What I can do is look at the data, track the trend month over month, and give you a straight read on what it means for your situation.

Prices are still adjusting year over year. But the pace is slowing and the supply picture is shifting. For a seller, if prices stabilize from here that is a reasonable environment to make a move. For a buyer, the negotiating room that exists today is real. Either way, waiting for perfect conditions that may never arrive carries its own cost.

The question is not really whether prices move from here. The question is what makes sense for you right now, and how do we make the most of the market that actually exists today.

What I do know is that just under 3,900 sales were recorded through TRREB’s MLS system in February. In this market. With all the uncertainty, the rates, the political noise, the job market anxiety. Nearly 3,900 transactions happened because people decided the reason to move was bigger than the reason to wait.

The truth is people are not just waiting for rates. They are waiting for confidence. Confidence that their job is secure, that the economy is not going to shift under them, and that the noise from every direction settles down enough to make a big decision feel like a reasonable one. Rates are part of it. But so is the cost of living, job security, and what is happening politically both here and across the border. All of it feeds into how people feel about making a move.

So instead of telling you what the market is doing, I want to talk about something more useful. Why do people actually move? What problem were they solving? What did they gain? And sometimes, is there a better way to solve that problem without moving at all?

That is the conversation worth having.

What the February 2026 GTA Real Estate Market Update Actually Tells Us

GTA REALTORS reported 3,868 home sales through TRREB’s MLS System in February 2026, down 6.3 percent compared to February 2025. The average selling price came in at $1,008,968, down 7.1 percent year over year.

Those are the numbers that get reported. Here is what did not make the headline.

New listings dropped by 17.7 percent year over year. That is nearly three times the rate at which sales declined. Sales fell 6.3 percent. New listings fell 17.7 percent. Supply is pulling back faster than demand. That is the real story in February 2026.

When fewer homes come to market than buyers are looking for, the gap between supply and demand tightens. TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld noted that if listings continue trending lower through spring, competition between buyers will increase, supporting prices and a recovery in sales.

The market is not in free fall. The data points to a market that is slowing its descent, not accelerating it. And that kind of market does not stay quiet indefinitely.

The 100,000 Buyer Question Now

TRREB Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer put a specific number on it: more than 100,000 buyers are currently holding off on a home purchase in the GTA. They are waiting for prices to level off and for positive news on the trade front.

When I read that number I had the same question you probably do. How do they get to 100,000? It comes from Ipsos polling data on home buying intentions across the GTA. It is not a perfect science but it points to something real. There is a significant amount of pent-up demand sitting just below the surface of this market.

When those conditions shift, even a fraction of those buyers re-entering at the same time changes the dynamic quickly. The question is whether you want to be positioned before that happens or still deciding after it does.

If You Are Thinking About Selling

February is historically a quieter month for inventory. But this February was quieter than most, with new listings across the GTA down nearly 18 percent from last year. If you listed your home this spring you would be entering a market with less seller competition than you might expect.

Buyers are still active. The sale to list price ratio across the GTA held at 97 percent in February. Milton came in at 98 percent. Mississauga at 98 percent. These are not distressed numbers. They reflect a market where properly prepared and properly priced homes are still transacting.

The sellers waiting for a dramatic recovery before listing may be waiting for conditions that do not arrive before the next wave of competition does. Right now your home has fewer neighbours on the block.

If the timing aligns with your family situation, your financial goals, or a life transition you have been planning, this spring is worth a serious conversation.

And if your situation is a little more complicated right now, maybe there is pressure around the mortgage or the timeline is not entirely your choice, that conversation is just as welcome. There is no judgment in it. You can read more about power of sale options in the GTA and what your options look like before things move further than you want them to.

If You Are Thinking About Buying or Making a Move

Prices have come down from their peak. The MLS Home Price Index Composite benchmark is down 7.9 percent year over year across TRREB. For buyers who have been on the sidelines, that represents real purchasing power compared to 2021 and 2022 levels.

Here is what I tell people when they ask me if they should wait. I try to understand why they want to move in the first place. What problem are they solving? What does the home they are moving to give them that they do not have now? Sometimes the answer is clear and the move makes sense today. Sometimes there is another way to solve the problem that costs less than moving. And sometimes just seeing what is available in their price range is enough to know one way or the other.

The most common thing I hear from buyers after the fact is not about the home they bought. It is about the one they talked themselves out of because the timing felt uncertain. Uncertainty does not disappear. It just shifts to a different kind of risk.

How the GTA Real Estate Market Update Breaks Down Locally: Oakville, Mississauga, Milton and Burlington

The GTA-wide numbers provide useful context. But the market you live in is the one that matters for your decision. Here is the February 2026 snapshot for the four communities I serve:

Market	Feb Sales	Avg. Price	Days on Market /SP:LP
Oakville	156 Sales	$1,325,983	36 days / 96%
Mississauga	345 Sales	$963,747	36 days / 98%
Milton	79 Sales	$974,613	29 Days / 98%
Burlington	126 Sales	$1,070,052	49 Days / 96%

Source: TRREB MLS Market Watch, February 2026. SP:LP = Sale to List Price ratio.

Milton has the fastest days on market of the four at 29 days and its 98 percent SP:LP ratio tells you buyers there are still competitive. Mississauga offers the broadest activity with 345 transactions and strong price retention. Oakville continues to attract buyers at the top end of the market. Burlington is seeing longer days on market at 49 days, which gives buyers more time but means sellers need to be strategic on price and presentation.

Each of these markets has its own rhythm. Explore your community guide:

Oakville → Mississauga → Milton → Burlington

What to Do If You Are Considering a Move in 2026

Every move starts with a conversation, not a deadline. This GTA real estate market update is one data point, but your situation is the real starting place. The right time to buy or sell is not something the market decides for you. It is something you decide based on where you are in life, what your finances look like, and what you are trying to build for yourself and your family.

What this GTA real estate market update tells me is that conditions are reasonable right now. Not perfect, not urgent, just reasonable. And reasonable conditions are often exactly when the most thoughtful decisions get made.

If you have been thinking about a move and want to get clear on what it would actually look like for your situation, that conversation costs nothing and usually answers more questions than you expected.

25 years in these four markets means I know what the data actually means for your street, your home type, and your timeline. Whatever stage you are at, I am here to support you through the whole thing.