The Market Is Shifting. Here Is What That Means for Your Next Move.

There is a specific kind of person who reads a market update in April.

They are not panicking. They are not rushing. But they have been watching. Paying attention to rates, to listings, to what sold down the street and what did not. They have a move in mind and they are trying to figure out whether now is the right time to start having the real conversation.

If that is you, this one is for you.

What March Told Us About the GTA

According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, March 2026 brought something the market has not seen in a while. Sales were up 1.7 percent compared to March 2025. At the same time, new listings dropped 16.7 percent year over year. Active listings fell 8 percent. The market is not flooded the way it was. Supply is tightening, quietly, while most people are still waiting on the sidelines.

The average selling price across the GTA came in at $1,017,796, down 6.7 percent from a year ago. That sounds like a big number until you look at what happened month over month. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices held relatively flat compared to February. The benchmark edged down slightly but the average price actually edged up. That is not a market in freefall. That is a market finding its footing. The pace of decline that defined 2024 and early 2025 is not what we are looking at right now.

Homes are sitting longer than they did two years ago. The average days on market in March was 31 days for listings, and 47 days from the first time a property went up. That extra time on market is not a sign of a broken market. It is breathing room. Buyers have space to think. Sellers who come in priced correctly are still selling. The sale to list price ratio held at 98 percent across the GTA. Reasonable offers are being accepted. Bidding wars are not the default. That combination does not last forever.

What This Means in Oakville, Mississauga, Milton and Burlington

The GTA average tells part of the story. Your market tells the rest.

Oakville

191 sales in March with an average price of $1,360,873. Oakville remains one of the strongest performing markets in the region and the numbers reflect that. If you have been thinking about selling in Oakville, the conversation around pricing and preparation matters more here than almost anywhere else. Buyers are paying attention to condition and value. The ones who come in well prepared are the ones who get the result they want.

Mississauga

452 sales in March with an average price of $966,615. Mississauga is active and the volume shows it. For buyers who have been priced out of Oakville or looking for more options, Mississauga continues to offer real value across a range of home types. For sellers, the competition means presentation and positioning have to be right.

Milton

100 sales in March with an average price of $939,648. Milton remains one of the most accessible entry points into the Halton market for families looking for freehold homes. The new listing count of 124 tells you inventory is not overwhelming buyers. This is still a market where well priced homes move.

Burlington

Burlington sits between Oakville and Hamilton in price and continues to attract buyers who want the lifestyle without the Oakville price tag. 473 new listings came to market in March, giving buyers more to consider. But here is the thing worth noting. More listings did not translate into prices dropping further. The average held at $1,098,789. That kind of stability in a month with strong new supply is actually a quiet positive signal.

The Mortgage Conversation Nobody Is Having Out Loud

Fixed rates have moved up. That is not a secret. What is less talked about is what a lot of buyers are quietly doing about it.

Some are looking at variable rate mortgages. Not because they love the uncertainty, but because they are watching the factors pushing fixed rates higher and wondering how long those pressures hold. A variable rate gives them flexibility. If conditions shift and rates come down, they benefit. If they do not, they have a plan for that too.

This is not mortgage advice. That conversation belongs with a broker who knows your full picture. But it is worth knowing that the buyers who are moving right now are not waiting for perfect conditions. They are making decisions with the information they have, with a plan that accounts for a few different directions things could go.

That is what planning looks like in a market like this one.

Something Worth Knowing If New Construction Is on Your Radar

A lot of people who have been sitting on a decision are starting to look at new freehold builds as part of their thinking. Not condos. Freehold. A home they can own from the ground up in a community that is still being shaped.

There are two things happening right now in Ontario that are worth understanding if new construction is something you have been considering.

The first is the HST New Housing Rebate. If you are buying a newly built home as your primary residence, you may be eligible for a rebate on a portion of the HST paid. The rules around eligibility and the rebate amount depend on the purchase price and how the home is being used. This is something to review with your accountant before you sign anything, but it is real money and a lot of buyers do not know it applies to them.

The second is development charges. The province and federal government have announced an $8.8 billion partnership designed to bring development charges down, in some cases by up to 50 percent for municipalities that participate. Not every city has signed on yet. Halton Region, which covers Oakville, Milton, Burlington and Halton Hills, has its own DC structure that is being updated as provincial changes come into effect. Oakville is phasing in reductions. Halton Hills has moved payment of DCs to occupancy rather than the permit stage, which changes the cash flow picture for builders and in some cases for buyers.

The Canada Revenue Agency outlines the eligibility criteria and rebate amounts for the HST New Housing Rebate.

What this means practically is that the cost of building and buying new freehold in this region is in transition. Some of those savings are being passed through. Some are not yet. Knowing which projects and which municipalities are ahead of the curve matters.

I am building out a dedicated new developments section on my website with marketing packages covering freehold new build opportunities across Oakville, Mississauga, Milton and Burlington. If new construction is something you want to understand better or if you have been looking at a specific development and want to talk through what it actually means for your situation, reach out.

The Move You Have Been Thinking About

Markets do not announce themselves. They shift, quietly, and the people who were paying attention and had a plan already in place are the ones who look back and say they got it right.

Whether you are thinking about selling, buying, or both, the most valuable thing you can do right now is get clear on what your move actually looks like. Not in theory. In practice. What needs to happen first, what the numbers need to look like, and what timeline makes sense for your life.

That is the conversation I have every day. If you are ready to start having it, I am here.