Is It a Good Time to Buy or Sell in the GTA? October 2026 Update

If you only have a minute, here is the GTA housing market in October, in five points:

• More homes sold than in September across Oakville, Mississauga, Milton, and Burlington, and fewer were for sale, leaving you with less competition as a seller and fewer listings to view as a buyer. GTA sales hit 5,603, still 7.9% below last October.
• Prices remain below last year. The GTA benchmark was down 4.3% and the average price was $1,024,108, down 2.7%.
• What you own matters far more than where you live. Detached homes in Oakville and Burlington held flat or edged slightly above last year, while condo apartments dropped 6% to 9% across all four cities.
• Burlington and Milton are balanced markets. Oakville and Mississauga remain buyer’s markets.
• The federal budget on November 5 proposed extending the foreign buyer ban to January 1, 2029 and raising the price limit for optional mortgage insurance. These are proposals, and nobody knows yet what the final loan products will cost.

Source: TRREB Market Watch and MLS Home Price Index, October 2026; Budget 2026. Homes for sale per sale is a custom calculation from TRREB figures.

When you sit down at the kitchen table to figure out whether to make a move, broad headlines about the GTA housing market usually do not help. If you are thinking of selling, you want to know whether your home will sell for what similar homes nearby have been selling for, and how long it will take. If you are thinking of buying, you are probably wondering whether jumping in now is smart or if you should wait for rates and prices to adjust further. October gave both sides real data to work with. Here is what actually happened in the GTA housing market across Oakville, Mississauga, Milton, and Burlington, and how you can use those numbers to make a decision.

Is the GTA housing market tightening, or is it still a buyer’s market?

Choice tightened across all four cities in October, but Oakville and Mississauga are still buyer’s markets, with fewer than 40% of new listings selling. The cleanest way to see this is by looking at how many homes were sitting for sale at month-end for every one that actually sold. In Oakville, that ratio dropped from 6.6 in September to 5.4 in October. Mississauga tightened from 5.1 to 4.6, Milton from 4.4 to 3.9, and Burlington from 4.3 down to 3.3. If you have a home to sell, that shift works in your favour: you had fewer competing listings than you did a month earlier.

That still does not mean sellers can name their price. A balanced market typically needs 40% to 60% of new listings to sell in a given month. Below 40% hands the leverage to buyers. Burlington landed at 46.7% and Milton hit 40.2%, placing both in balanced territory. Oakville and Mississauga hovered near 36%, meaning buyers in those two towns can still negotiate firmly on conditions and pricing. Across all four communities, homes sold for an average of 95% to 97% of asking, so every realistic selling plan needs to account for room to negotiate.

If you are buying and keeping an eye on mortgage rates, you are not alone. Inflation came in at 3.1% in September, the Bank of Canada’s rate was 2.5% in October, up from 2.3% in September, and posted five-year fixed rates rose from 6.09% to 6.19%. Rates went up, so softer purchase prices have been doing the heavy lifting to keep monthly carrying costs in check. Jason Mercer at TRREB put it plainly: buyers “continued to benefit from substantial negotiating power on price over the past year.”

Why does the type of home you own matter more than your city?

The type of home matters more because houses and condos are moving in completely opposite directions right now. If you own a detached home in Oakville, the benchmark price reached $1,624,600 in October, up 0.6% compared to last year. In Burlington, the detached benchmark rose 1.3% to $1,212,400. If you own a condo apartment, the trend reversed: values dropped 7.7% in Oakville, 5.7% in Burlington, 6.8% in Milton, and 8.9% in Mississauga over that same twelve-month stretch. You and your neighbour down the street could be experiencing two totally different real estate markets.

If you are thinking about selling your house and moving into a condo, October worked in your favour in Oakville and Burlington. The house you would be selling stayed level with last year: the typical detached home was $1,624,600 in Oakville and $1,212,400 in Burlington, both a little higher than a year ago. The condo you would be buying got cheaper: the typical condo apartment was $537,300 in Oakville, down 7.7%, and $492,600 in Burlington, down 5.7%. In Mississauga, both moved down together, so the math on that move is about the same as last month. What you actually keep depends on your own house and the condo you choose, and that is the conversation worth having.

If you own a semi or a freehold townhome and you are hoping to move up to a detached home, the move costs about what it did a month ago. In Milton, the typical semi or freehold townhome was $793,700 in October and the typical detached home was $1,163,300, and both were down about 6% from a year ago. In Mississauga, they were $868,300 and $1,235,100, down 3.3% and 4.3%. Because the home you would sell and the home you would buy moved together, the step up is about where it was in September.

How is your city doing?

Burlington sold the most homes for the number it had for sale, Milton stayed just inside balanced territory, and Oakville and Mississauga sold more homes than in September but are still buyer’s markets.

If you live in Oakville

If you live in Oakville, October was a busier month than September. 191 homes sold, up from 162, and there were fewer homes for sale at the end of the month, 1,025 compared with 1,073. Prices have barely moved in a year: the typical Oakville home is about $1,148,800, only 0.3% lower than last October. If you are selling, the part I would want you to notice is time. Homes that sold took 37 days on their current listing (LDOM) and 53 days from the first time they were listed (PDOM). In September those two numbers were 24 days apart, and in October they were 16. That tells me fewer sellers had to take their home off the market and relist it at a lower price before it sold. Buyers still have plenty to choose from here. Only about a third of new listings sold, and homes went for 95% of asking on average, so plan on a conversation about price. If you are thinking of selling in Old Oakville or anywhere else in town, the first thing we would do together is look at every home on your street from the past year, the ones that sold and the ones that did not, so you can see what buyers paid and what they passed on.

If you live in Mississauga

If you live in Mississauga, the first thing I would ask you is what kind of home you own, because the answer changes the whole picture. If you own a semi, October was a good month for you. 67 semis sold at an average of $909,101, they sold for 98% of asking, and close to half of the new semi listings found a buyer. If you own a detached home or a freehold townhome, you are just under the line of a balanced market. If you own a condo apartment, I would be straight with you: you have more competition than any other seller in the four cities. 404 new condo apartments came on the market in October, 128 sold, and there were 812 for sale at the end of the month. They took about 44 days to sell (LDOM), and that is where preparation and presentation make the biggest difference. If you are the one buying a condo, in City Centre or anywhere else in Mississauga, you have a lot to choose from and time to make a careful decision. Overall, the typical Mississauga home was $860,100, down 3.9% from a year ago, and it was the only one of the four cities to slip a little from September.

If you live in Milton

If you live in Milton, a lot depends on whether you own a townhome or a condo. Freehold townhomes were the busiest part of the market again. 38 sold in October at an average of $799,318, for 98% of asking, in about a month (32 days, LDOM). If that is what you own, buyers are out there looking for it. Detached homes had a harder year, with the typical price down 5.9% to $1,163,300, the biggest drop for detached homes of the four cities. If you own a condo apartment or a condo townhouse, it is a slower market for you right now. Only 21 sold between the two in October, and they took more than two months on average, so a realistic timeline matters. Overall, about 40% of new listings sold in Milton, which keeps the town just inside a balanced market.

If you live in Burlington

If you live in Burlington, October was a strong month. 214 homes sold, up from 177 in September, and there were only 712 for sale at the end of the month, about three for every one that sold. Almost half of the new listings, 46.7%, found a buyer. Detached homes sold in about four weeks (28 days, LDOM) at 97% of asking, and the typical detached price was 1.3% higher than a year ago. Semis and freehold townhomes were up 1.8%. If you have been waiting for a market where a well prepared home sells in a reasonable time without a big discount, Burlington is that market right now. If you are buying here, the right home may not sit for long, so it helps to have your pre-approval done and know what you want before you start.

Does the federal budget change anything for you?

For now, your day-to-day decisions stay the same. The federal budget tabled on November 5 introduced four housing proposals, and every one of them requires legislation or regulations before taking effect.

Proposed extension of the foreign buyer ban. The ban on foreign buyers purchasing resale residential properties was scheduled to expire on January 1, 2027. The budget proposes extending it two years to January 1, 2029, while exempting newly built homes. If passed, non-residents without an exemption could purchase new builds, but existing resale homes would remain off-limits.

Proposed expansion of optional mortgage insurance. The proposal would raise the price limit for optional mortgage insurance from $1 million to $1.5 million, alongside 30-year amortizations, provided at least one borrower is a first-time buyer or the property is newly built.

Proposed multiplex financing. Starting February 1, 2027, newly built three- and four-unit residential properties could qualify for insured financing up to 90% of their value, with no purchase price caps and no requirement for the owner to live on site.

Proposed mortgage comparison tools. The Bank of Canada would publish information on insured mortgage rates, the CRA would offer lenders an income verification service, and the government will consult on making prepayment penalties easier to understand.

If you are a first-time buyer looking above $1 million, or you are planning to build or buy a new three or four unit home, hold off on changing your plans until lenders show what these products will cost. What matters is what lenders will charge for these products, what interest rates come attached, and whether lenders offer them at all. Until real products hit the market, decisions should stay grounded in today’s rules. When lenders publish their pricing, I will share the real numbers. You can review the complete proposals in Chapter 3 of Budget 2026.

If you are thinking about selling, where do we start?

The conversation starts with you and your plans, not a list price, and I do it in two visits. The first time I come over, it is to get to know you and the home. We talk about why you are thinking of moving, what needs to happen and by when, what the mortgage and equity look like at a conservative number, where you work, and what needs to be in place on the other side. Then we walk through the house together, because a computerized valuation knows your address but not how your home looks and any updates you may have made.

The second time, I come back with home comparables that match yours: the ones that sold, the ones that sat, and the ones that expired without an offer. We go through all of it together, and the price comes out of that conversation. I also lay out every option for getting your home ready, from having the trades, stager and photographer organized around your schedule to taking a list of people I trust and handling it yourself, so you can decide what works for you.

If you are thinking about buying, what should you do now?

Secure a verified pre-approval or a rate hold. Stress-test your monthly payments at today’s rate plus a full percentage point, so you start your search knowing your numbers. You hold real negotiating leverage, but active inventory contracted from September and borrowing costs went up. Testing your monthly carrying costs at a higher rate gives you certainty that the house fits your budget regardless of where interest rates go. If you are searching in Oakville or Mississauga, where approximately five homes are for sale for every one that sells, historical listing records serve as your strongest negotiation tool. If you are looking in Milton, where there are about four homes for sale for every one that sells, you have more choice in condos, while freehold townhomes are selling faster, in about a month. If you are shopping in Burlington, where inventory sits closer to three homes per sale, well-priced listings move quickly, making preparation essential.

If you are downsizing or moving up, what does October mean for you?

If you are downsizing in Oakville or Burlington, October worked in your favour, and if you are moving up, the cost of the move barely changed. Detached prices stayed level with last year while condo prices eased, so the house you would sell kept its price and the condo you would buy got cheaper. If you are moving up from a townhouse or semi, both prices moved together, so the step to a detached home is about where it was in September. For both moves, the main challenge is sequencing the transactions so you avoid carrying two mortgages or rushing into a temporary rental. In Oakville and Mississauga, which are still buyer’s markets, prioritizing the sale of your current home first provides the most security. The trade-offs are outlined step-by-step in sell first or buy first.

If you live outside Canada, what should you plan for?

If you are selling from outside Canada, plan for a longer closing timeline, and if you are looking to buy, note January 1, 2029 as the proposed new end date for the foreign buyer ban. For sellers, the Section 116 certificate process begins only after a transaction becomes firm. Until the CRA issues the clearance certificate, the buyer’s lawyer holds back a significant portion of the sale proceeds in trust, typically 25% or more. Because homes in October took 48 to 56 days from first listing to sale (PDOM), a property listed in November will likely see holdback funds released well into 2027. Reviewing holdback terms with an experienced real estate lawyer before closing avoids unexpected delays.

If you are buying from abroad, the proposed budget rules adjust your timeline. The existing ban was set to expire on January 1, 2027, but the federal proposal would extend it to January 1, 2029 for resale properties while exempting new construction. Both dates remain provisional until the change is passed into law. Canadian citizens and permanent residents are not affected, while work permit holders who can buy remain subject to Ontario’s 25% Non-Resident Speculation Tax. The specifics are detailed in Can an American buy a house in Ontario.

What did the GTA housing market look like in each city in October 2026?

The GTA registered 5,603 sales in October 2026 at an average price of $1,024,108, with Burlington recording the tightest market of the four cities at 3.3 homes for sale per sale. The full comparison is below.

October 2026	Oakville	Mississauga	Milton	Burlington	GTA
Composite benchmark (YoY)	$1,148,800 (-0.3%)	$860,100 (-3.9%)	$870,000 (-4.4%)	$850,800 (+0.3%)	$916,400 (-4.3%)
Detached benchmark	$1,624,600 (+0.6%)	$1,235,100 (-4.3%)	$1,163,300 (-5.9%)	$1,212,400 (+1.3%)	$1,194,200 (-4.4%)
Semi and freehold townhouse benchmark	$1,027,000 (+0.4%)	$868,300 (-3.3%)	$793,700 (-5.9%)	$888,400 (+1.8%)	$914,300 (-3.8%)
Condo townhouse benchmark	$703,400 (-4.5%)	$674,900 (-6.7%)	$600,800 (-4.7%)	$657,100 (-4.4%)	$662,200 (-6.6%)
Condo apartment benchmark	$537,300 (-7.7%)	$481,300 (-8.9%)	$498,200 (-6.8%)	$492,600 (-5.7%)	$521,600 (-7.3%)
Sales	191	508	128	214	5,603
Average price	$1,383,011	$927,521	$966,412	$1,046,822	$1,024,108
Median price	$1,220,000	$843,000	$888,500	$892,000	$860,000
Active listings	1,025	2,342	501	712	25,098
Homes for sale per sale (September)	5.4 (6.6)	4.6 (5.1)	3.9 (4.4)	3.3 (4.3)	4.5 (5.2)
Share of new listings selling (SNLR)	36.3%	36.4%	40.2%	46.7%	37.9%
Market type	Buyer’s	Buyer’s	Balanced	Balanced	Buyer’s
Sold to list	95%	97%	97%	97%	97%
Days on market, current listing (LDOM)	37	35	36	32	31
Days on market, from first listing (PDOM)	53	56	52	48	49

Sales by home type, October 2026

Sales (average price)	Oakville	Mississauga	Milton	Burlington
Detached	106 ($1,833,285)	200 ($1,326,044)	61 ($1,221,147)	101 ($1,376,964)
Semi-detached	5 ($887,400)	67 ($909,101)	8 ($890,875)	10 ($868,900)
Freehold townhouse	33 ($977,899)	17 ($882,686)	38 ($799,318)	21 ($857,186)
Condo townhouse	11 ($707,545)	94 ($677,378)	10 ($592,664)	42 ($758,690)
Condo apartment	34 ($677,274)	128 ($504,685)	11 ($525,727)	37 ($658,858)

Benchmarks are MLS Home Price Index values and sales figures are from TRREB Market Watch, October 2026. Homes for sale per sale is active listings divided by sales, a custom calculation from TRREB figures. A buyer’s market represents under 40% of new listings selling, while 40% to 60% represents balanced conditions.

Want to see what is happening on your street?

Send me your street name and I will pull a complete record of every listing on it over the past twelve months: the homes that sold, the ones that sat, and the ones that expired without an offer. That record shows exactly what buyers paid and where they pushed back, and the numbers are yours to keep whether you plan to move next month or down the road.

Frequently asked questions

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Damir Strk, Broker, RE/MAX Realty Specialists Inc., Brokerage (25+ years serving Oakville, Mississauga, Milton, and Burlington). Market data source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) Market Watch and MLS Home Price Index, October 2026. Budget measures: Government of Canada, Budget 2026.