Welcome to the January 2026 GTA real estate market update. Want to stay up to date with the GTA real estate market? [Subscribe here] to get the latest stats and insights delivered straight to your inbox.

The headlines will tell you sales are down and prices are falling. That is true. But the story is more nuanced than that, and it looks different depending on where you live and whether you are buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on things.

Let me break it down.

January 2026 GTA Real Estate Market Update: The Big Picture

January was a slow month. That is not unusual for this time of year, but the numbers were softer than what we saw last January.

There were 3,082 home sales across the GTA, which is about 19% fewer than the same month last year. Fewer people bought homes. At the same time, there are more homes sitting on the market. Active listings climbed to just under 18,000, which is about 8% higher than a year ago.

So we have fewer buyers and more homes to choose from. That is the definition of a buyer’s market.

The average selling price came in just under $975,000, down about 6.5% from last January. The MLS Home Price Index, which adjusts for the types of homes that sold, was down closer to 8%. Either way, prices are lower than they were a year ago.

One number I pay close attention to is total property days on market. This counts how long a home has actually been sitting, even if the seller relisted it or changed agents along the way. Across the GTA, that number is now 67 days on average, up from 55 last year. Homes are taking about two weeks longer to sell than they did a year ago.

Interest rates have come down from their peak, but they are still elevated. The Bank of Canada rate is holding at 2.3%, and five year fixed mortgages are sitting around 6%. That is better than it was, but it is still a lot higher than the rates people got used to a few years ago.

So what does all of this mean? It means buyers have leverage right now. It means sellers need to be realistic about pricing. And it means the market is rewarding patience and preparation on both sides.

Now let me show you what this looks like in the communities I work in.

Oakville

Oakville is interesting because the gap between the average price and the median price tells a story.

The average sale in January was about $1.33 million. But the median, which is the midpoint where half of sales were higher and half were lower, was $1.12 million. That is a $200,000 difference. What that tells you is that a handful of expensive homes sold and pulled the average up, but most buyers were transacting closer to that $1.1 million range.

There were 105 sales in total, with nearly 800 active listings on the market. That works out to about 5.7 months of inventory, which is firmly in buyer’s market territory. If you are looking in Oakville right now, you have options.

Homes sold at about 95% of their asking price on average, which tells you there is room to negotiate. And the typical home spent 71 days on the market before selling. That is over two months. If you are a seller, you need to be patient and priced correctly. If you are a buyer, you can take your time and be selective.

Detached homes averaged just over $1.9 million, townhouses were around $1.05 million, and condos were in the $625,000 range. Prices across the board are down about 9% from last year according to the benchmark index.

Oakville has a lot of distinct neighbourhoods, each with its own character and price point. If you are exploring the area, I have put together detailed guides for communities like Glen Abbey, Old Oakville, Bronte, and River Oaks. You can also browse all Oakville neighbourhoods to see which ones might be the right fit.

Mississauga

Mississauga is a big city with a wide range of price points, and it tends to be one of the more accessible markets in the western GTA.

The average sale price in January was about $944,000, with a median closer to $839,000. For a lot of buyers, especially first time buyers or people relocating from Toronto, Mississauga offers more space and more value than what they would get closer to the city.

There were 300 sales last month, making it the busiest of the four communities I track. But there were also over 1,600 active listings, so buyers have plenty to choose from. The months of inventory sits at 5.2, and the sales to new listings ratio is around 32%. Both of those numbers tell you the same thing: buyers are in control here.

Homes sold at 96% of asking on average and spent about 68 days on the market. That is consistent with what we are seeing across the region. Sellers who are priced right are finding buyers, but it is taking longer than it used to.

The benchmark index for Mississauga was down about 8.5% year over year. That tracks closely with what we are seeing in Oakville and across the GTA.

Mississauga has everything from waterfront condos in Port Credit to established family neighbourhoods in Lorne Park and Clarkson, to newer developments in Erin Mills. Each area has its own feel, and it is worth exploring a few to see what fits your lifestyle. This January 2026 GTA real estate market update shows Mississauga as one of the more accessible entry points in the western GTA. You can browse all Mississauga neighbourhoods to compare your options.

Milton

Milton is the smallest market of the four, but it had some of the most interesting numbers this month.

There were 82 sales at an average price of just over $1.04 million. The median was $996,500, which is pretty close to the average. That tells you the sales were fairly consistent in terms of price range. You are not seeing the same spread between entry level and high end that you see in Oakville.

What stood out to me is that Milton had the fastest sales of all four communities. Homes spent an average of 61 days on the market, which is still over two months, but it is about 10 days faster than Oakville and Mississauga. When a home is priced right in Milton, buyers are making decisions.

The benchmark index was down 7.16% year over year, which is the smallest decline of the four. That aligns with the faster sales. Milton seems to be holding up a bit better than the others, at least for now.

Inventory sits at 4.0 months, and the sales to new listings ratio is 36%. Both of those are healthier than Oakville and Mississauga, suggesting a more balanced market.

If you are considering Milton, I have put together community guides that cover the different neighbourhoods and what each one offers.

Burlington

Burlington had 109 sales in January at an average price of about $1.03 million. The median was $910,000, so there is some spread there, but not as dramatic as Oakville.

What makes Burlington interesting is the supply and demand picture. The sales to new listings ratio was 41.2%, the highest of the four communities. That means a larger share of new listings are actually selling. Months of inventory sits at 4.0, tied with Milton for the lowest of the group.

So on one hand, Burlington has tighter supply relative to demand than Oakville or Mississauga. On the other hand, the benchmark price dropped 10% year over year, which is the steepest decline of the four.

How do you reconcile those two things? One possibility is that Burlington is further along in the correction. Prices have come down more, which is bringing buyers back into the market. If that is the case, Burlington could be closer to finding a floor than the others.

Homes sold at 97% of asking and spent about 69 days on the market on average.

I am still building out my Burlington neighbourhood guides, but you can explore what is available on my Burlington communities page.

What This January 2026 GTA Real Estate Market Update Means for You

If you have made it this far, you are probably not just casually browsing. That is the picture this January 2026 GTA real estate market update paints. You are either thinking about buying, thinking about selling, or trying to figure out what your home is worth in this market.

Here is my honest take.

If you are a buyer, the conditions are in your favour right now. You have more inventory to choose from than you have had in years. Prices are down. Sellers are negotiating. Interest rates are still elevated, but they are not going higher anytime soon, and if anything they may come down further this year.

That does not mean every listing is a deal. There are still overpriced homes out there, and some sellers have not adjusted to where the market is today. But if you are patient and strategic, you can find something good. The key is knowing what fair value looks like in the neighbourhoods you are targeting so you can move confidently when the right home comes up.

If you want help building a shortlist or understanding what is realistic for your budget, that is exactly what I do. Let me know and we can set up a time to talk.

Start Your Buying Plan

If you are a seller, pricing correctly from day one is everything right now. The homes that are selling are the ones that are priced to reflect current market conditions. The ones that sit are usually the ones where the seller is hoping for 2022 prices or testing the market with an ambitious number.

The data backs this up. Homes are selling at 95 to 97% of asking across these communities. Buyers are not paying over asking. They are negotiating, and sellers who price honestly are getting closer to their number.

If you are thinking about listing this spring, now is the time to start planning. Not next month. Now. That means understanding what comparable homes have sold for, what your competition looks like, and what price will generate interest without leaving money on the table. I can run a detailed market analysis for your home so you know exactly where you stand before you make any decisions.

Start Your Selling Plan

If you are not ready to move yet, that is completely fine. Maybe you are a year out. Maybe you are just keeping an eye on things to see where the market goes before making a decision.

My advice is to stay informed but do not obsess over month to month fluctuations. Real estate moves in cycles, and trying to time the absolute bottom or top is a losing game. What matters more is whether a move makes sense for your life, and whether you are financially prepared to do it on your terms.

If you want to have a conversation about your situation without any pressure, I am happy to do that. Sometimes it helps to just talk through the options and see what makes sense.

Book A Consultation

I hope this January 2026 GTA real estate market update gave you a clearer sense of where things stand in Oakville, Mississauga, Milton, and Burlington.

All data sourced from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) MLS System. January 2026 Market Watch report.

January 2026Download

There were 3,082 home sales reported across the GTA in January 2026, which is a decrease of 19.3% compared to January 2025.

The average selling price in Oakville was $1,330,082 in January 2026, with a median price of $1,120,000. The MLS HPI benchmark was down 8.86% year over year.

January 2026 data points to a buyer’s market across the GTA. The sales to new listings ratio is at 33.3%, months of inventory is at 5.0, and homes are selling at 97% of asking price on average.

Across the GTA, homes averaged 67 total property days on the market in January 2026, up from 55 days in January 2025. In Oakville it was 71 days, Mississauga 68 days, Burlington 69 days, and Milton 61 days. Total property days on market counts the entire time a property has been listed, even across multiple listing periods.

The Bank of Canada overnight rate was 2.3% in January 2026, with the prime rate at 4.5%. Five year fixed mortgage rates were around 6.09%.Want to stay up to date with the GTA real estate market? [Subscribe here] to get the latest stats and insights delivered straight to your inbox.